my take on things - comments about all the world and his brother

Translation exercise (just for fun)

US military transportplanes are sitting side by side on the airfield. Soldiers, maybe from Idaho or Texas, are idly talking while leaning against a hummer painted in camouflage needed in Afghanistan. The soldiers ignore the nosy civilians that have just left a russian Aeroflot plane and are now walking towards the airportbuilding, even when some are taking pictures. Only a kirgisian security guard makes a halfhearted attempt after the pictures had long been taken, but nothing really happens.

America isn't hiding its presence on the airport in Manas, near the capital of Bishkek, which has been the airbase used for logistical support for troops fighting against the Taleban in Afghanistan. Why would they? Kirgisians and Russians have long since understood that the western coalition forces fight for their interests as well. China has never been overjoyed by this, mayhaps due to the fact that Manas offered the possibility for aerial military reconaissance on chinese territory. But Russia's and China's pressure on the centralasian countries to stop the american use of airbases in the region is a thing of the past. At least for now, the stabilization of Afghanistan is on the same political agenda of America & the West and Russia. The eviction of the US from Manas has been revised after President Obama stretched his political feelers towards Moscow to test the waters for a new cooperation. Airfield Manas is now dubbed a "transit centre", but it retains its previoius functions. The game between Washington and Moscow had been decisive, tiny Kirgisistan was surely just an extra in this particular play. After all, kirgisian president Kurmanbek Bakijew was able to triple the rent paid by the US for using the airfield.

Part 2

A new supermarket dubbed "Asija" has opened next to the russian airbase in Kant, not even 40km away from Bishkek. The owners count on russian business. Across the street, a new cafe, "Kafe Rossija", has opened for business as well. There is a sign at the entrance to the airbase which says "russian airbase kant" - next to an old sowjet fighterjet on display. There isn't much to see besides a huge Antonow cargoplane on the tarmac, surrounded by rolling wheatfields, and exercising fighterjetsin the air. Kant is supposed to have a russian sisterairbase in the south of Kirgisistan soon.

One wonders if things grow together postsowjet now that had been united under the sowjets once, or if this is something else entirely. Even during the tulip revolution of 2005, Kirgisian revolutionary politicians had been avoiding antirussian paroles. Bakijew, who rose into power during the revolution, more or less continued the policy of manouvering between the superpowers of his predecessor Aska Akajew. "Kirgisian foreignpolicy has to find its way home", said Bakijew last thursday. Russia would remain a strategic partner for Kirgisistan, and the relations to the centralasian neighbours, especially Usbekistan, should be improved. That doesn't mean that the relations to the USA and the west should be neglected. A policy change is unlikely due to this statement, and the implications of the new russian airbase in the south have to remain mere speculation in this context.

The base close to Tadjikistan, which borders to Afghanistan, is supposed to be a shared trainingcentre for the war against terrorism, and the location seems to have been chosen well. The regional threatassessment is obviously considering the possibility that Tadjikistan could tumble into civil war. Contributing to this might have also been the worry of what might happen in Usbekistan if president Islam Karimow stops to be in power. Karimow is holding the country in a political and economic chokehold for two decades now, but he had never been able to erradicate the opposition completely. And the threatassessment surely considered the threat coming from Afghanistan where the mililtary pressure could cause terrorcells from Afghanistan and Pakistan slipping into its neighbouring countries. That has happened already recently in south kirgisitan. In may and July government troops have had firefights with islamic groups.

(rest following shortly)


Comments
on Jul 26, 2009

Were the Georgians counting on the US, too?  Seems we are not the most reliable allies lately.

on Jul 26, 2009

eh.. two third of that article are still missing. It goes more into detail about a russian airbase about 40km away from Manas and Russias potential reasseartion of its role as rulingpower in the region.. and the problems that could arise with terrorism if the current operations in Afghanistan are successful of fail, both of which could push terrorgroups from pakistan and afghanistan into its neighbouring countries Kirgisistan, Tadshikistan, Usbekistan. That is why Kirgisistan is looking for protection from russia, because it could not withstand that war alone. Chinas role in all this is still undefined. And there is a dispute over waterrights between Kirgistan, Tadjikistan, Kasachstan and Usbekistan.. (how does one spell all those -stan countries?)

I thought it was an interesting and underreported aspect of the whole war against terror in Afghanistan, its geopolitical implications for the region and how old powerstructures resurface. News focus mostly on the securitiy implications for the west.

Georgia's relationshp with Russia was not mentioned here, but after Nato and the EU acted the way it did in Kosovo by taking its side, it is difficult to argue against Russia doing the same for Abchasien. And direct inlfuence of the US in Georgia wouldn't really have gone over too well with Russia, they consider it their backyard. Especially since tensions have been high due to the planned US missile shield.

Hm, if you notice blatant language errors, point them out please?

on Jul 26, 2009

Russia, they consider it their backyard

It still didn't do much for US image to see Russian soldiers driving around Georgia in HUMMVs left behind by US during joint training exercise just a few days before the Russkies visited their "backyard".

Hm, if you notice blatant language errors, point them out please?

You are doing great so far...don't want to be too picky...it detracts from the charm of the ESL-ness.

on Jul 27, 2009

I didn't know about the HMMV's.. it is a tad emberassing, agreed.

But still, Russia is chafing over not being a serious superpower anymore and they are very prickly about others trying to influence things on their doorstep.

I just read this other article in my newspaper about the russian police/militia and they were mostly described as orgaized crime, a huge racketeering organization that "solves" crime because people pay to have cases closed, or pay to have people arrested. There are practically no cops that aren't corrupt, and those few who are idealists lose hope quickly. This system runs all the way up to the federal level, nobody really wants to improve things, just make protest about all of that disappear. Human right activists who go up against that police disappear or are murdered. Arrested men are routinely tortured, woman and children "only" slapped around with a copy of the russian penal code.

You can tell alot about society and the government by looking at the way the police works. Even though there probably are controversial cases in the US because corruption is a universal feature, due process is something that is taken seriously. The cops in russia love the old saying from Felix Dsershinski, founder of the cheka - secret police: That you are free is not due to your merit but to our fault of not finding something yet. It's pure dictatorship

on Jul 29, 2009

Do not underestimate Russia as a power.  They still have lots of tanks and nukes and fellas in uniform who would love to prove to you and other Western Europeans that they ARE a super-power.  They may not be the "ten-foot tall and bullet-proof" image of their past, but they can still punch a hole in the Western Wall. 

Their police sound like the old days, just working for a different boss nowdays.

 

on Jul 29, 2009

They still have lots of tanks, but do they also have the gas to run them, spare parts and mechanics.. the money to pay the soldiers a decent wage? Russia has draft, and I know some musicians who came to germany to study music and who have to be careful to go back home to not be drafted right away. A soldiers life in russia isn't really alot of fun.. I once saw this really disheartening documentary about the army. The young guys were always abused and beaten by the older ones, and there wasn't enough money to buy food so they grew their vegetables themselves. Russians probably have the need to feel proud about their military cababilities and build new nuclear submarines and whatnot, allthewhile their old nuclear subs lie rusting in the harbour, a ticking timebomb.

It's not so much that I don't take russia seriously, it is rather that I am wary of what might happen with a destabilized regime in place that is run by ex FSB cronies and corrupt police. One look in Putin's eyes is enough to give me the creeps. They are a threat.. and they are wary of the EU and the west who are increasing their influence in the former member states of the USSR. Those who'd love to punch a hole in the Western Wall might just be on the rise in power - then the Us military might get its beloved archenemy back after all